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2018 House · AZ-8

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-04-14 (10 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.63% · Republican 52.37%

R+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.633 − 52.367 = -4.734
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-4.734) = 5.735
  4. Absolute miss = |5.735| = 5.735

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52339, race ID 1758 (538 database).