Skip to content

2012 House · CA-52

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 470 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.18% · Republican 48.82%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.181 − 48.819 = 2.362
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (2.362) = -6.363
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.363| = 6.363

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52381, race ID 4968 (538 database).