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2012 House · OR-1

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2012-01-11 (20 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.81% · Republican 39.57%

D+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.806 − 39.569 = 14.237
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (14.237) = -10.238
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.238| = 10.238

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52448, race ID 1789 (538 database).