2010 Governor · CO
Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 14%
D+32.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.05% · Republican 11.14%
D+39.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 14 = 32.00
- Actual margin = 51.052 − 11.142 = 39.910
- Signed miss = 32.00 − (39.910) = -7.910
- Absolute miss = |-7.910| = 7.910
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52906, race ID 1279 (538 database).