Skip to content

2010 Governor · IL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 45%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.79% · Republican 45.94%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 45 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.789 − 45.935 = 0.854
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (0.854) = -8.853
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.853| = 8.853

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52978, race ID 1285 (538 database).