2010 Governor · IA
Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 46%
R+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.21% · Republican 52.81%
R+9.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 46 = -6.00
- Actual margin = 43.208 − 52.806 = -9.598
- Signed miss = -6.00 − (-9.598) = 3.598
- Absolute miss = |3.598| = 3.598
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52986, race ID 1286 (538 database).