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2010 Governor · ME

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 1,812 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 40%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 16.33% · Republican 43.00%

R+26.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 40 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 16.329 − 43.001 = -26.672
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-26.672) = 10.672
  4. Absolute miss = |10.672| = 10.672

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52998, race ID 1292 (538 database).