2010 Governor · ME
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 26% · Republican 40%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 16.33% · Republican 43.00%
R+26.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 26 − 40 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 16.329 − 43.001 = -26.672
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-26.672) = 12.672
- Absolute miss = |12.672| = 12.672
The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53000, race ID 1292 (538 database).