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2010 Governor · MA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.42% · Republican 42.01%

D+6.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.422 − 42.005 = 6.417
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (6.417) = -4.418
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.418| = 4.418

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53023, race ID 1294 (538 database).