Skip to content

2010 House · MA-10

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 349 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 33%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.87% · Republican 42.38%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 33 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.873 − 42.384 = 4.489
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (4.489) = -0.489
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.489| = 0.489

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53025, race ID 4658 (538 database).