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2010 Governor · MI

Glengariff Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 53%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.90% · Republican 58.12%

R+18.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 53 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.903 − 58.115 = -18.212
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-18.212) = 0.211
  4. Absolute miss = |0.211| = 0.211

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53054, race ID 1295 (538 database).