2010 Governor · MI
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 55%
R+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.90% · Republican 58.12%
R+18.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 55 = -18.00
- Actual margin = 39.903 − 58.115 = -18.212
- Signed miss = -18.00 − (-18.212) = 0.211
- Absolute miss = |0.211| = 0.211
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53055, race ID 1295 (538 database).