2010 Governor · MN
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 38%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.63% · Republican 43.21%
D+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 38 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 43.627 − 43.211 = 0.416
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.416) = 0.584
- Absolute miss = |0.584| = 0.584
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53072, race ID 1296 (538 database).