2010 Governor · MN
Princeton Survey Research Associates International · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 999 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 34%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.63% · Republican 43.21%
D+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 34 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 43.627 − 43.211 = 0.416
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (0.416) = 6.584
- Absolute miss = |6.584| = 6.584
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53074, race ID 1296 (538 database).