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2010 Governor · NM

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-22 (11 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 50%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.55% · Republican 53.28%

R+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 50 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.550 − 53.285 = -6.735
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-6.735) = -1.264
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.264| = 1.264

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53128, race ID 1289 (538 database).