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2010 Governor · NM

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 647 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 54%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.55% · Republican 53.28%

R+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 54 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.550 − 53.285 = -6.735
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-6.735) = -5.264
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.264| = 5.264

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53130, race ID 1289 (538 database).