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2010 Governor · NY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 633 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 33%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.71% · Republican 27.04%

D+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 33 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.709 − 27.042 = 27.667
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (27.667) = -1.667
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.667| = 1.667

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53158, race ID 1298 (538 database).