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2010 Governor · OR

DHM Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 43%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 47.77%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.295 − 47.765 = 1.530
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (1.530) = 1.470
  4. Absolute miss = |1.470| = 1.470

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53208, race ID 1300 (538 database).