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2010 Governor · OR

Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 47.77%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.295 − 47.765 = 1.530
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (1.530) = 2.470
  4. Absolute miss = |2.470| = 2.470

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53210, race ID 1300 (538 database).