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2010 Governor · RI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 25%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 23.05% · Republican 33.57%

R+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 25 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 23.049 − 33.571 = -10.522
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-10.522) = 13.522
  4. Absolute miss = |13.522| = 13.522

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53250, race ID 1302 (538 database).