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2010 Governor · SC

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 878 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 51%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.91% · Republican 51.37%

R+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 51 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.908 − 51.371 = -4.463
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-4.463) = -9.537
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.537| = 9.537

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53262, race ID 1303 (538 database).