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2010 Governor · UT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 66%

R+37.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.91% · Republican 64.07%

R+32.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 66 = -37.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.905 − 64.068 = -32.163
  3. Signed miss = -37.00 − (-32.163) = -4.837
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.837| = 4.837

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53321, race ID 1307 (538 database).