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2010 Senate · UT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 61%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.76% · Republican 61.58%

R+28.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 61 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.762 − 61.583 = -28.821
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-28.821) = -4.179
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.179| = 4.179

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53321, race ID 1540 (538 database).