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2012 Governor · WI

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-06-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,226 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 50%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.28% · Republican 53.08%

R+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 50 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.282 − 53.082 = -6.800
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-6.800) = 3.800
  4. Absolute miss = |3.800| = 3.800

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54027, race ID 1269 (538 database).