2008 House · NH-2
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 404 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 31%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.44% · Republican 41.42%
D+15.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 31 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 56.442 − 41.424 = 15.018
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (15.018) = 5.982
- Absolute miss = |5.982| = 5.982
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54158, race ID 4268 (538 database).