1998 Senate · AZ
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 732 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 18% · Republican 66%
R+48.0
The certified result
Democrat 27.16% · Republican 68.75%
R+41.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 18 − 66 = -48.00
- Actual margin = 27.162 − 68.745 = -41.583
- Signed miss = -48.00 − (-41.583) = -6.417
- Absolute miss = |-6.417| = 6.417
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54203, race ID 1719 (538 database).