1998 Governor · AZ
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 850 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 55%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 35.53% · Republican 60.95%
R+25.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 55 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 35.529 − 60.945 = -25.416
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-25.416) = 8.416
- Absolute miss = |8.416| = 8.416
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54204, race ID 1435 (538 database).