Skip to content

1998 Senate · AZ

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 850 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 64%

R+37.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.16% · Republican 68.75%

R+41.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 64 = -37.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.162 − 68.745 = -41.583
  3. Signed miss = -37.00 − (-41.583) = 4.583
  4. Absolute miss = |4.583| = 4.583

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54204, race ID 1719 (538 database).