1998 Governor · CA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 4,531 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 39%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.97% · Republican 38.38%
D+19.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 39 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 57.968 − 38.377 = 19.591
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (19.591) = -8.591
- Absolute miss = |-8.591| = 8.591
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54215, race ID 1436 (538 database).