1998 Senate · CA
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 43%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.06% · Republican 43.01%
D+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 53.057 − 43.012 = 10.045
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.045) = -0.046
- Absolute miss = |-0.046| = 0.046
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54219, race ID 1721 (538 database).