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1998 Governor · CO

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 1998-10-16 (18 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 43%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.42% · Republican 49.04%

R+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 43 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.419 − 49.038 = -0.619
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-0.619) = -3.381
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.381| = 3.381

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54224, race ID 1437 (538 database).