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1998 Governor · CO

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 614 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 43%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.42% · Republican 49.04%

R+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.419 − 49.038 = -0.619
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-0.619) = 3.619
  4. Absolute miss = |3.619| = 3.619

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54225, race ID 1437 (538 database).