Skip to content

1998 Governor · CO

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 1998-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 47%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.42% · Republican 49.04%

R+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 47 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.419 − 49.038 = -0.619
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-0.619) = -5.381
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.381| = 5.381

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54226, race ID 1437 (538 database).