1998 Senate · FL
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 2,295 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 31%
D+29.0
The certified result
Democrat 62.47% · Republican 37.53%
D+24.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 31 = 29.00
- Actual margin = 62.469 − 37.531 = 24.938
- Signed miss = 29.00 − (24.938) = 4.061
- Absolute miss = |4.061| = 4.061
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54247, race ID 1724 (538 database).