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1998 Governor · FL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 53%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.72% · Republican 55.27%

R+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 53 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.724 − 55.269 = -10.545
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-10.545) = -1.455
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.455| = 1.455

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54250, race ID 1439 (538 database).