1998 Governor · FL
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 822 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 51%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.72% · Republican 55.27%
R+10.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 44.724 − 55.269 = -10.545
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-10.545) = 2.545
- Absolute miss = |2.545| = 2.545
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54252, race ID 1439 (538 database).