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1998 Senate · GA

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,408 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 56%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.15% · Republican 52.37%

R+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 56 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.150 − 52.370 = -7.220
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-7.220) = -10.780
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.780| = 10.780

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54262, race ID 1725 (538 database).