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1998 Governor · HI

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 406 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 52%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.10% · Republican 48.82%

D+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 52 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.105 − 48.816 = 1.289
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (1.289) = -16.289
  4. Absolute miss = |-16.289| = 16.289

The poll overstated the Republican by 16.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54265, race ID 1441 (538 database).