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1998 House · HI-1

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 1998-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 272 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 32%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.56% · Republican 36.35%

D+25.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 32 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.556 − 36.348 = 25.208
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (25.208) = -10.208
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.208| = 10.208

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54266, race ID 1964 (538 database).