1998 Senate · IA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 803 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 24% · Republican 68%
R+44.0
The certified result
Democrat 30.49% · Republican 68.41%
R+37.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 24 − 68 = -44.00
- Actual margin = 30.493 − 68.412 = -37.919
- Signed miss = -44.00 − (-37.919) = -6.082
- Absolute miss = |-6.082| = 6.082
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54275, race ID 1730 (538 database).