1998 Governor · IL
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 1,209 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 55%
R+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.46% · Republican 51.03%
R+3.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 55 = -18.00
- Actual margin = 47.464 − 51.034 = -3.570
- Signed miss = -18.00 − (-3.570) = -14.430
- Absolute miss = |-14.430| = 14.430
The poll overstated the Republican by 14.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54293, race ID 1443 (538 database).