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1998 Governor · IL

KRC Research · fieldwork ended 1998-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 44%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.46% · Republican 51.03%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 44 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.464 − 51.034 = -3.570
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-3.570) = 1.570
  4. Absolute miss = |1.570| = 1.570

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54294, race ID 1443 (538 database).