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1998 Governor · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 21% · Republican 74%

R+53.0

The certified result

Democrat 22.65% · Republican 73.37%

R+50.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 21 − 74 = -53.00
  2. Actual margin = 22.654 − 73.368 = -50.714
  3. Signed miss = -53.00 − (-50.714) = -2.285
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.285| = 2.285

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54300, race ID 1445 (538 database).