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1998 Senate · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 66%

R+35.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.59% · Republican 65.27%

R+33.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 66 = -35.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.588 − 65.266 = -33.678
  3. Signed miss = -35.00 − (-33.678) = -1.322
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.322| = 1.322

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54300, race ID 1731 (538 database).