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1998 Governor · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 1998-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 62%

R+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.78% · Republican 62.20%

R+24.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 62 = -32.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.778 − 62.205 = -24.427
  3. Signed miss = -32.00 − (-24.427) = -7.573
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.573| = 7.573

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54335, race ID 1449 (538 database).