1998 Governor · NY
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 2,243 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 27% · Republican 49%
R+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 30.47% · Republican 44.59%
R+14.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 27 − 49 = -22.00
- Actual margin = 30.466 − 44.591 = -14.125
- Signed miss = -22.00 − (-14.125) = -7.875
- Absolute miss = |-7.875| = 7.875
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54384, race ID 1455 (538 database).