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1998 Senate · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,196 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 62%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.53% · Republican 56.46%

R+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 62 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.534 − 56.460 = -12.926
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-12.926) = -11.074
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.074| = 11.074

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54396, race ID 1741 (538 database).