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1998 Governor · OH

Columbus Dispatch · fieldwork ended 1998-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Mail

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.69% · Republican 50.05%

R+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.689 − 50.048 = -5.359
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.359) = 4.359
  4. Absolute miss = |4.359| = 4.359

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54397, race ID 1456 (538 database).