1998 Governor · OH
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 2,149 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 52%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.69% · Republican 50.05%
R+5.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 52 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 44.689 − 50.048 = -5.359
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-5.359) = -4.641
- Absolute miss = |-4.641| = 4.641
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54398, race ID 1456 (538 database).