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1998 Governor · PA

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 807 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 23% · Republican 59%

R+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.03% · Republican 57.42%

R+26.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 23 − 59 = -36.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.033 − 57.417 = -26.384
  3. Signed miss = -36.00 − (-26.384) = -9.616
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.616| = 9.616

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54408, race ID 1459 (538 database).